COVID-19 Roundup: (April 2020)

COVID-19 Roundup: (April 2020)

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19. Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding. Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem. Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections. Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.

After providing evidence for the above facts he goes on to conclude:

The appropriate policy, based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand, is to institute a more focused strategy like some outlined in the first place: Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions. This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation.
A pandemic does not alter the role of a government. For example, it can limit the freedom of those individuals who carry the virus for limited periods to protect others, whose right to life would be violated. This could involve testing, tracing contacts, and tracking. When governments are involved in operating health care systems, as they are in most mixed economies, they would isolate nursing home residents and other vulnerable people, increase hospital capacity, and set guidelines for physical distancing—as opposed to violating everybody’s right to liberty by locking down economies.
We need to learn to appreciate progress—both what we’ve already done, and why we can’t stop now. We need to tell the amazing story of progress: how comfort, safety, health, and luxury have become commonplace, and what a dramatic achievement that has been.
More recently, in the wake of the Covid-19 virus outbreak, we’ve seen unwarranted, unprecedented violations of all three realms of freedom in America – mandates to close businesses, edicts that people stay in their homes (“shelter in place,” akin to a nationwide house arrest of innocents presumed guilty), decrees against assembling (compelling “social distancing”), orders restricting access to gun shops, even the classification of some street protests (against the illiberal controls) as prohibited because a “non-essential” activity.  We’ve yet to see challenges from the ACLU or court orders staying the rights violations. Why?
The lockdowns, whatever one thinks of them, were never sold to us as a way to eradicate the disease. They were sold as a way to “flatten the curve” so that the medical system didn’t become overwhelmed, leading to *unnecessary* deaths. [...] We must open the economy as fast as we can. And we must do so while managing the disease as best we can. That includes selective isolation for the most vulnerable. (I have family members in this category…and, if it matters, they support re-opening the economy. They recognize that it would be immoral to demand that we sacrifice the whole country to reduce their odds of getting the disease.)
  • Alex Epstein’s video “A pro-freedom approach to fighting COVID-19": (Power Hour, April 15, 2020):
If you’re seeking to avoid COVID-19, the hand sanitizer gel you carry in a pocket or purse did not exist until the 1960s. If you start to show symptoms, the pulse oximeter that tests your blood oxygenation was not developed until the 1970s. If your case worsens, the mechanical ventilator that keeps you alive was invented in the 1950s—in fact, no form of artificial respiration was widely available until the “iron lung” used to treat polio patients in the 1930s. Even the modern emergency medical system did not exist until recently: if during the 1918 flu pandemic you became seriously ill, there was no 911 hotline to call, and any ambulance that showed up would likely have been a modified van or hearse, with no equipment or trained staff.
If you are a scientist at an academic institution currently working on a COVID-19 related project and in need of funding, we invite you to apply for a Fast Grant. Fast Grants are $10k to $500k and decisions are made in under 48 hours. If you wish to apply to grants for scientific or biomedical COVID-19 projects, please apply through FastGrants.org.

Mac Donald: Coronavirus Disparities are a Culture, Not a Race, Problem

Writes Heather Mac Donald on "Coronavirus Racial Disparities Miss the Bigger Picture" at Intellectual Takeout:
Coronavirus disparities are a class and culture, not a race, problem. Poor people everywhere have higher rates of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease. If the incidence of infection among black New Yorkers and Chicagoans were compared not to that of Manhattanites and the denizens of the Magnificent Mile but to residents of southeastern Ohio and of areas around abandoned steel plants in West Virginia, those alleged race disparities would shrink markedly.There may be “structural” elements to obesity and hypertension, but those conditions are largely the result of behavioral choices that individuals can control. Playing the race card during a pandemic is not just politically corrosive, it is medically unsound.

A Pro-Privacy COVID-19 Contact Tracing App

According to the creators, the Decentralised Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing (DP-3T) project is "an open protocol for COVID-19 proximity tracing using Bluetooth Low Energy functionality on mobile devices that ensures personal data and computation stays entirely on an individual's phone."Artist Nicky Case (with help from Prof Carmelo Troncoso & Prof Marcel Salathé) created a comic to explain how the protocol works:You can see the long version here.Updates:

Alexis de Tocqueville on The Abuse of Power Under Democracy

"If it be admitted that a man, possessing absolute power, may misuse that power by wronging his adversaries, why should a majority not be liable to the same reproach? Men are not apt to change their character by agglomeration; nor does their patience in the presence of obstacles increase with the consciousness of their strength. And for these reasons, I can never willingly invest any number of my fellow-creatures with that unlimited authority which I should refuse to any one of them."

-- Alexis de Tocqueville (1805-1859)

Yaron Brook Interviews The Rational Optimist, Matt Ridley, on How Innovation Works

https://youtu.be/xa4AfXvR1XoYaron Brook has a wonderful interview with Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist, on the subject of Ridley's forthcoming book, How Innovation Works.You'll hear amazing gems like this:
LED lighting would be another example of something that's come in within the last 10 years -- unpredicted, unheralded -- the result of an innovation by a Japanese professor 20-30 years ago. But now we can get white or tunable light out of LEDs; uses far less electricity than the preceding technologies .... is yet another step in the incredible decline of the cost of lighting. That's my favorite example of rational optimism. You basically have to work for a third of a second these days on the average wage to earn an hour of light. Well back in 1800 you had to work for six hours to earn that much light from a candle on the average wage. That's the sort of improvement we've seen in technologies over the last couple of centuries.

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